Since this is a fight between elite strikers, and neither of these guys have shown even an ounce of thought of taking a fight to the ground, we’ll skip doing a full breakdown and look at some key points.
1. Jose Aldo is the better striker.
Mark may be right when he says that Aldo has never fought a striker like him, but it works both ways. Hominick is essentially a boxer that puts a great deal of pressure on guys. He rarely throws kicks, attempts takedowns, or anything even remotely flashy. He has a stiff jab, controls distance well, and hits very hard. However, Aldo is much faster and has far more striking tools in his toolbox. To see what a faster and more varied striker can do to Hominick, look no further than the Yves Jabouin fight at WEC 49. Yves was able to tag Hominick on numerous occasions and even dropped him. If Hominick had been unable to recover so quickly and reverse to mount, he could have easily lost that fight. Aldo has Yves’s speed, but he also possesses more technique and much more power.
2. Mark Hominick has no backup plan.
Neither Brown, Faber, or Gamburyan were able to take Aldo down. When Mark starts loosing the striking exchanges, he doesn’t have the wrestling offensive capabilities to move this fight to the floor. That leaves him with only one game plan, and that could be a recipe for disaster.
3. Mark doesn’t check leg kicks.
Watching Mark’s last 3 fights show very few moments when he actually checks any leg kicks. Aldo has the most devastating kicks in the division (ask Faber). Standing in the pocket and boxing is going to give Aldo the opportunity to batter Mark’s legs just like he did Faber.
4. The punchers chance is not a good betting stratgy.
While MMA has proven that any fighter in the world has a punchers chance, the actual odds of it are far lower than people realize. Even with the normal 10 fight card, there is far less than one come-from-behind lucky punch on a card. It is probably closer to 1 out of 3 cards. That makes such a chance closer to 3%, which means Hominick’s line would have to be pretty high in order to bet on the off-chance a lucky punch lands. In addition, Aldo has never even shown the slightest shred of evidence in having a weak chin.
5. Jose may have ring rust, octagon jitters, or complications from healing up.
While all of these are certainly true. Aldo has never been shy to drop out of a fight due to injury. As such, he will more than likely be close to 100% for this fight. He’ll also have only been out of the cage for less than a year. While making a UFC debut in a title fight is a daunting task, it is doubtful that Aldo should give up more than a 10% skew to Hominick for this fact.
Setting the Line
Mark Hominick is a good fighter, but he isn’t a great fighter. Jose Aldo is one of those great fighters. His skill sets and natural talents all line up to form a very special fighter. He’s already dispatched of the cream of the crop of the featherweight division. He stole Mike Browns soul, ran Faber off to the 135lb division, and put Gamburyan to sleep. Hominick has had a bumpy career. He is currently riding a 5-fight win streak that includes his most recent wins over Leonard Garcia and George Roop for a title shot. Beating those level of fighters is not even close to completely destroying guys like Faber, Brown, and Gamburyan. Mark has a huge test in Aldo and it will be far from easy. As such, the lines should be Jose Aldo at -350 and Mark Hominick at +350.
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