On September 15th, we’ll get to watch Nate Marquardt and Rousimar Palhares face off on Spike TV’s Ultimate Fight Night 22. This fight was original suppose to happen at UFC 118, but due to a host of injuries, it was moved to this card and elevated to main event status. I’m pretty excited about the bout, although the casual fans may not know much about these two competitors. So let’s break it down.
Background:
Nate Marquardt was a beast in Pancrase, and was their Middleweight champion 3 times with 3 successful defenses. He then moved on to the UFC in 2005. After stringing together 4 quality wins, he then fought Anderson Silva for the belt and was subsequently put down near the end of the first round. Since then, he has had some mixed success as he tries to battle back into contention. His most recent losses was a complete drumming by wrestling kingpin but BJJ choker extraordinaire Chael Sonnen.
Then we have Rousima Palhares, an extremely strong and promising midddle weight BJJ artist who burst on to the UFC scene back in May of 2008. Since entering the octagon, he has gone 4-1 with his lone loss to Dan Henderson via decision. He most recently caught some flak for holding an ankle lock on Tomasz Drwal for a bit longer than absolutely necessary. This will be his first fight after a suffering a 90 day suspension for the debacle.
Striking:
Marquardt will definitely have an advantage standing up. He has proven he has KO power by blasting Demian Maia back at UFC 102. He utilizes good combinations, and loves to swarm guys against the fence. So far, he hasn’t really taken a beating on the feet, except getting TKOed by Silva and dropped in the first round in his fight against Thales Leites.
Palhares, on the other hand, has average striking, with a predilection for flashy head kicks, which he has yet to land with any great effect. However, what he lacks for in offensive capabilities he makes up for with a solid chin. He ate some very powerful right hands from Dan Henderson, and it seemed to barely phase him.
Edge: Offensively – Marquardt, Defensively – Palhares
Wrestling:
This is really were Palhares starts to shine. He has very good double leg takedowns and can generate some impressive slams when given the chance. So far, the only fighter that could keep him on the feet was an olympic level wrestler in the form of Dan Henderson.
Marquart, on the other hand, has a rudimentary wrestling offense. He more or less utilizes trips in the clinch, reminiscent of Forrest Griffin. Defensively, he is a high-risk high-reward type of fighter. He very much relies on his guillotine choke, which he used to choke out Jeremy Horn and nearly got Sonnen with, and flying knees. Very rarely does he utilize sprawls, something that Henderson has shown can be effective against Palhares.
Edge: Offensively – Palhares, Defensively – Palhares
Grappling:
Palhares can simply be described as an absolute beast on the ground. He is incredibly strong with wicked leg and ankle locks. He has shown to have an incredibly tight top game and tapped out more than one BJJ black belt in the UFC. The only problem is his willingness to give up top control to work his leg locks, which sometimes costs him strategic positioning. That being said, his scrambling and transitions is top notch, which is why he is willing to go for the sub.
In addition, he has grown to utilize much more ground in pound in his grappling attack. In his first fight with Salaverry, he didn’t soften him up on the ground at all. Fast forward a two fights, and you get this:
This really shows that the guy is progressing, and not stagnating in his training.
Marquardt, is a bit more average on the ground. He does have submission skills, but he isn’t the absolute killer that Palhares is. In addition, he is not nearly affective from the bottom as he is on the top. This can be seen in the Sonnen fight where he offered very little offense from his back for 3 rounds.
Edge: Palhares both in the top game, bottom game, and in the scramble
Paths to Victory:
Palhares has a pretty simple game plan in every fight, get his opponent down and work his BJJ. He’s only been thwarted once, and that was Dan Henderson, who stuffed nearly all of Palhares’s takedowns.
Marquardt is more of a bully in the cage. He relies much more heavily on his rounded skill sets and likes to either flurry against the cage, or catch a submission during a takedown attempt.
This may lead to a great deal of problems for Marquardt. It is extremely doubtful that Palhares is going to give up his neck to a guillotine choke like Jeremy Horn (and almost Chael Sonnen) did. Palhares also has a granite chin, who should be able to take whatever Marquardt is dishing out. That leads to the one big problem in this match up, the wrestling. Palhares has improved his setup for takedowns dramatically. For example, in the Henderson fight, he mostly just shot from the outside:
He also used some pretty basic, and at times strange, one strike setups:
Since then, his setups have greatly improved. For example, he setup Linhares with hard overhand right, instead of a lead jab or head kick:
Here is some more of his takedowns so you can get a feel for his power and ability:
Now lets take a look at how Marquardt tends to look against a powerful takedown attempt:
Even Jeremy Horn was able to work him down with a takedown:
Instead of sprawling, he likes to try and get the big payoff moves like guillotines and knees:
Marquardt has been training these techniques for most of his career, and he has been lucky enough to get away with it up until recently. Since he hasn’t fought any strong wrestlers up until he faced off with Sonnen, this type of defense was working for him. This makes it highly doubtful that he will suddenly have an incredible Dan Henderson like sprawl when he faces Palhares.
It should also be noted that if Marquardt wants to stay off of the ground with Palhares (which he should), then his striking will likely be degraded since he will have to be constantly defending the takedowns. This could very well negate his advantage on the feet.
Pulling the Trigger:
This all leads me to believe that Palhares is a very bad matchup for Marquardt. Marquardt is a well rounded fighter, but he has recently shown to have a problem with wrestlers. That, couple with Palhares’s acumen on the ground, could spell disaster for the one time title contender.
This line should probably be set at closer to Palhares as a healthy favorite at around -150, which makes him a great play at the current lines.
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