You can dramatically increasing your Wagering ROI by following one simple technique: Line Shopping. However, I don’t want you to just take my word for it. Here is a simple experiment to show just how important it really is.
For this test, we took 35 fights from UFC 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, and Fight for the Troops II. Which side to bet on each fight was decided by a flip of a coin. The amount to bet was decided as such, $10 was bet if the fighter was an underdog, the amount to win $10 was bet if the fighter was the favorite. This was done to keep everything consistent and simple. (Excel spreadsheet here)
Lets start with just assuming that we only have 1 account, and that is at SportsInteraction.com. Just using their closing lines on fights, we would have turned a profit of $30.90.
If we had only one account at BetUS.com, we would have turned a profit of $53.50 with only using their closing lines.
When both of these bookmakers are combined and the best line taken between the two (Line Shopping), the profit goes up to $59.30. That is an increase of $5.80 or a 10.8% increase in profits just from using two bookmakers instead of one. That is a hefty return, and bear in mind, only over 98 days, so it is not even an annualized or compounded rate.
Adding a Third Bookmaker
5Dimes.com has some of the best lines in the business, and one account with them would have generated a total profit of $81.50.
When combining all three bookmakers and shopping for the best line, the total profit over the 7 events and 35 bouts increases to $83.90, or a 2.9% increase in profits over only using 5Dimes. For added perspective, you have to consider that 2.9% is still a larger return than most people are getting on CDs at banks or even on the stock market (that is 2.9% over 98 days, it is an equivalent annual simple return of 10.6%).
To see how important this is, below is the profit/loss characteristics of each of the seven events:
|Event||2 Bookmakers||3 Bookmakers|
The profits are consistently higher, and the losses consistently lower with use of an additional sportsbook, some are quite a bit so.
If you are not utilizing more than one bookmaker, and line shopping before placing bets, you are leaving money on the table. An immediate increase in your ROI will be seen by simply adding a few additional sportsbooks. How much your profits will increase will vary with the mix of bookmakers used, but you can be sure it will be a significant. Check out our Bookmaker Reviews to get started and get set to line shop before the next big MMA event.
First off, these are only the closing lines of each fight at the sportsbook. As we all know, lines shift quite a bit, and even though 5Dimes.com looked to have the sharpest lines, that may have only been the case at fight time for these events. Since another large part of gambling proficiently is watching trends and timing bets properly, these profits would most certainly have been different if time and line movements were taken into consideration.
Secondly, this small study does not take into consideration arbitrage opportunities, which were found 6 times out of 35 bouts (17% of the time). As such, an even higher profit would have been generated with a lower risk profile due to capturing arbitrage.
Finally, optimum bet sizes, betting limits, or transaction costs were not taken into consideration.